Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Marupe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 29 Jun 2025

📅29/06/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.08
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
Over 2.5
63%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
13%
X/1
7%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
29%
-1.9pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.1pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-6.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
62%
-1.8pp
39%
BTTS No
38%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Marupe EU Bookmakers 50%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
0.43/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.57
-69% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +127%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
260 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Marupe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
25.05.2024 Marupe Marupe 2-1 HT 0-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Marupe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marupe cruised past Progress / AFA Olaine 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 27% / 32% / 40% — and on the day Marupe made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Marupe?

Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Marupe in the Latvia - 1st Division on 29/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Marupe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 27%, draw 32%, Marupe 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marupe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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