AIK 0-1 GAIS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 29 Jul 2024

AIK
0-1 HT 0-1
GAIS
📅29/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

AIK vs GAIS Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
21%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
23%
4.48
X/2
7%
7.58
X/X
12%
5.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
2/2
9%
5.33
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
49%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
21%
Away Win
26%
-5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AIK v GAIS — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY GAIS EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.64/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.12
+13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
21.0 Crosses 21.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.4

AIK vs GAIS Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
4W-0D-2L
AWAY GAIS
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.86 xG 0.67
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
432 Passes 266
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.07.2024 GAIS GAIS 2-0 HT 1-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
19.02.2017 AIK AIK 1-0 HT 1-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇK
26.08.2012 GAIS GAIS 0-1 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
24.05.2012 AIK AIK 1-0 HT 0-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
01.10.2011 AIK AIK 2-1 HT 1-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
19.06.2011 GAIS GAIS 2-0 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ

AIK 0-1 GAIS — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
0-1
AWAY GAIS
1.72 xG 0.85
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
502 Passes 211
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AIK vs GAIS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

GAIS nicked a narrow win over AIK 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AIK at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AIK had 68% of the ball to GAIS's 32%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.72 to 0.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured AIK.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AIK had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AIK and 0.83 for GAIS.

What was the final score of AIK vs GAIS?

AIK 0-1 GAIS in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs GAIS?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AIK 55%, draw 24%, GAIS 21%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AIK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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