Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
27%
4.62
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
72%
-13.6pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.2pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 12%
+13% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.12/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/2.33
+3% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / -15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
410 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.03.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-0 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
2-0
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna beat Septemvri Sofia 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 59% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 41%, shots finished 20-7.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 58%, draw 27%, Septemvri Sofia 15%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
29 Jul 2024
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