Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 29 Jul 2024

Sporting Kansas City
2-1 HT 1-1
Chicago Fire
📅29/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Concacaf League Cup – 2024

Sporting Kansas City vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.13
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.05 — our 30% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v Chicago Fire — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Sporting Kansas City vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
408 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.06.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 0-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
20.03.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
12.09.2021 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-0 HT 2-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
17.10.2020 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
08.10.2020 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
07.07.2019 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-0 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD

Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Chicago Fire — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
2-1
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.56 xG 0.57
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
386 Passes 322
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City squeezed past Chicago Fire 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Kansas City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 53% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 47%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.56 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Kansas City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.00 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs Chicago Fire?

Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Chicago Fire in the Concacaf League Cup on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 49%, draw 23%, Chicago Fire 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Kansas City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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