Alianza Petrolera 2-1 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.3pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.39/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.04
+28% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
17.9 Crosses 13.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Millonarios
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.75 xG 1.96
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
245 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
06.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-2 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
29.09.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
30.07.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
11.05.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 3-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
31.10.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-4 HT 2-3 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2-1
AWAY Millonarios
1.50 xG 0.07
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
243 Passes 452
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 5
18 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera squeezed past Millonarios 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Alianza Petrolera found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 39% of the ball to Millonarios's 61%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 1.50 to 0.07 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Petrolera's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 2.00 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Millonarios?

Alianza Petrolera 2-1 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated an Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 34%, draw 28%, Millonarios 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →