Millonarios 1-1 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 1 Feb 2024

📅01/02/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.32
Draw
27%
4.62
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.91
Over 2.5
39%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.29
No
63%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
71%
-17.3pp
27%
Draw
18%
+8.9pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
48%
+12.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
52%
-12.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.4pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.38/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.47
-6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -5%
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
446 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 71%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
20.7 Crosses 11.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.06 xG 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
400 Passes 281
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-2 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
29.09.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
30.07.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
11.05.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 3-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
31.10.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-4 HT 2-3 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
15.05.2022 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
1-1
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.05 xG 0.45
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
394 Passes 197
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 5
39 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios and Alianza Petrolera couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Millonarios at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Millonarios had 64% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 36%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.05 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Millonarios and 0.83 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Alianza Petrolera?

Millonarios 1-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 01/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 54%, draw 27%, Alianza Petrolera 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Millonarios), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Millonarios) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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