Libertad 1-2 Nacional Asuncion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-3.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
2.14/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.24
+20% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Nacional Asuncion
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
18.04.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
24.09.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-3 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad PAR
08.07.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
19.02.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-2 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-2
AWAY Nacional Asuncion
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Nacional Asuncion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion squeezed past Libertad 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Libertad had 60% of the ball to Nacional Asuncion's 40%, shots finished 14-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Libertad and 0.83 for Nacional Asuncion.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Nacional Asuncion?

Libertad 1-2 Nacional Asuncion in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Nacional Asuncion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Libertad 54%, draw 24%, Nacional Asuncion 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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