Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 29 Aug 2024

Sao Paulo
0-1 HT 0-0
Atletico Mineiro
📅29/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Brazil - Cup – 2024

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
26%
2.83
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.36
Over 2.5
39%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.4
No
56%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
1.9
2-3 Goals
43%
1.88
4-5 Goals
17%
7.25
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.48
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.4
X/1
17%
4.46
X/2
17%
6.23
X/X
11%
3.16
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
10%
5.54
2/X
11%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.8pp
26%
Draw
32%
-6.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
70%
-9.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
30%
+9.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
38%
+6.2pp
56%
BTTS No
62%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Atletico Mineiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.80/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.16
-12% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
20.6 Crosses 12.3
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.78 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
378 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
06.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
02.11.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
11.07.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
26.09.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
13.06.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico Mineiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
0-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.77 xG 0.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
412 Passes 317
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro edged past Sao Paulo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 56% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 44%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 0.77 to 0.21 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sao Paulo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Cup on 29/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 44%, draw 26%, Atletico Mineiro 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sao Paulo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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