UCV 3-1 Carabobo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 29 Aug 2024

UCV
3-1 HT 1-0
Carabobo
📅29/08/2024 · 🕒03:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.18
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-8.0pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.2pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.9pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCV EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Carabobo EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +2%
1.22/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.75
+3% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
21.4 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCV
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Carabobo
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.92 xG 0.57
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
227 Passes 373
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Carabobo Carabobo 0-1 HT 0-0 UCV UCV VEN
07.07.2023 Carabobo Carabobo 2-1 HT 2-1 UCV UCV VEN
06.05.2023 UCV UCV 0-0 HT 0-0 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
19.09.2022 Carabobo Carabobo 4-0 HT 3-0 UCV UCV VEN
26.02.2022 UCV UCV 0-0 HT 0-0 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCV
3-1
AWAY Carabobo
2.68 xG 1.71
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
184 Passes 251
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UCV vs Carabobo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCV got the better of Carabobo 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; UCV found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UCV had 44% of the ball to Carabobo's 56%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.68 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Carabobo led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for UCV and 1.20 for Carabobo.

What was the final score of UCV vs Carabobo?

UCV 3-1 Carabobo in the Venezuela - Premier League on 29/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCV vs Carabobo?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCV win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split UCV 34%, draw 33%, Carabobo 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UCV) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UCV) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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