Swansea City 1-1 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Sep 2024

Swansea City
1-1 HT 1-0
Bristol City
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Swansea City vs Bristol City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.9
Over
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
30%
3.29
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
19%
3.58
6+
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.29 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.4
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
16%
5.07
X/2
11%
5.72
X/X
12%
4.78
2/1
12%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.0
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
28%
Away Win
34%
-5.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.1pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swansea City v Bristol City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.41/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.35
+1% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
301 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
19.7 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Swansea City vs Bristol City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bristol City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.03 xG 1.02
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
521 Passes 229
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
02.09.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-2 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
19.03.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
17.01.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-2 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City FAK
08.01.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 1-1 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City FAK
29.10.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 1-1 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL

Swansea City 1-1 Bristol City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-1
AWAY Bristol City
1.00 xG 2.06
66% Ball Possession 34%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
490 Passes 191
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City and Bristol City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Swansea City at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Swansea City had 66% of the ball to Bristol City's 34%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.00 to 2.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Swansea City and 1.17 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Bristol City?

Swansea City 1-1 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 45%, draw 27%, Bristol City 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swansea City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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