Ipswich Town 2-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

Ipswich Town
2-2 HT 1-2
Aston Villa
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 29% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.17
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
10%
7.31
X/2
15%
4.63
X/X
12%
4.85
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.73
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.7pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ipswich Town v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ipswich Town EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
0.45/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.96
-23% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 75%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
16.0 Crosses 20.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ipswich Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aston Villa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.60 xG 1.83
44% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
228 Passes 338
65% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.01.2019 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
18.08.2018 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL
21.04.2018 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 0-4 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL
25.11.2017 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-0 HT 1-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
11.02.2017 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
17.09.2016 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL

Ipswich Town 2-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ipswich Town
2-2
AWAY Aston Villa
1.18 xG 0.82
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 0
347 Passes 480
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ipswich Town and Aston Villa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ipswich Town had 44% of the ball to Aston Villa's 56%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.18 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ipswich Town and 1.50 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?

Ipswich Town 2-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ipswich Town 31%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 44%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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