Helsingborgs IF 4-0 Gefle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
28%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.18
Over Pick
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.26
2-3
41%
1.87
4-5
25%
2.99
6+
12%
9.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.81
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.0
X/1
14%
3.71
X/2
9%
12.75
X/X
10%
6.3
2/1
11%
21.45
2/2
12%
9.73
2/X
5%
17.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-13.9pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
16%
+12.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helsingborgs IF EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Gefle EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.09/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/2.08
-41% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helsingborgs IF
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gefle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.04.2024 Gefle Gefle 2-3 HT 0-2 Helsingborgs IF Helsingborgs IF İSÇ2
21.10.2023 Helsingborgs IF Helsingborgs IF 0-0 HT 0-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
10.04.2023 Gefle Gefle 1-0 HT 0-0 Helsingborgs IF Helsingborgs IF İSÇ2
25.08.2018 Helsingborgs IF Helsingborgs IF 3-0 HT 2-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
05.06.2018 Gefle Gefle 1-1 HT 1-0 Helsingborgs IF Helsingborgs IF İSÇ2
02.10.2017 Gefle Gefle 2-1 HT 2-0 Helsingborgs IF Helsingborgs IF İSÇ2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helsingborgs IF
4-0
AWAY Gefle
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Helsingborgs IF vs Gefle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helsingborgs IF swept aside Gefle 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Helsingborgs IF as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Helsingborgs IF had 54% of the ball to Gefle's 46%, shots finished 17-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Helsingborgs IF and 1.00 for Gefle.

What was the final score of Helsingborgs IF vs Gefle?

Helsingborgs IF 4-0 Gefle in the Sweden - Superettan on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helsingborgs IF vs Gefle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helsingborgs IF win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Helsingborgs IF 50%, draw 22%, Gefle 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helsingborgs IF), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Helsingborgs IF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →