Linense 2-3 Don Benito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.52
Over
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
39%
4-5
19%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.5pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Linense The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Don Benito The Market 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
0.73/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.27
-43% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Linense
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Don Benito
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
02.02.2020 Don Benito Don Benito 2-2 HT 2-1 Linense Linense İS3
15.09.2019 Linense Linense 1-0 HT 1-0 Don Benito Don Benito İS3
POST-MATCH Linense vs Don Benito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Don Benito nicked a narrow win over Linense 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Linense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Linense had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Linense and 1.00 for Don Benito.

What was the final score of Linense vs Don Benito?

Linense 2-3 Don Benito in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Linense vs Don Benito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Linense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Linense 44%, draw 25%, Don Benito 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Linense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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