Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Victory v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
2-1
HT 1-0
Macarthur
AVUS
0-1
HT 0-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
1-4
HT 0-1
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
3-1
HT 2-0
Macarthur
AVUS
Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur nicked a narrow win over Melbourne Victory 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Melbourne Victory had 65% of the ball to Macarthur's 35%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 1.52 to 0.37 — on chances, Melbourne Victory could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.83 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur in the Australia - FFA Cup on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 46%, draw 25%, Macarthur 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5 went the other way.