Osijek 2-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.75
Over 2.5
34%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.85
No
62%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.94
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
3.97
6+ Goals
7%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 40% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
48%
-13.1pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.5pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
53%
+13.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
47%
-13.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
50%
-12.5pp
62%
BTTS No
50%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
1.32/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.25
-13% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
354 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 69%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
27.5 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
311 Passes 262
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2024 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
10.12.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
22.09.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.04.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
26.02.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
09.11.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
2-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.67 xG 1.13
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
349 Passes 408
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osijek vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek edged past NK Varazdin 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; Osijek found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osijek had 47% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 53%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.67 to 1.13 — on chances, NK Varazdin could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Osijek and 1.17 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Osijek vs NK Varazdin?

Osijek 2-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Osijek 35%, draw 32%, NK Varazdin 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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