Tuen Mun SA 3-2 Shatin SA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.65
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.96
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
34%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.7pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.8pp
50%
Away Win
62%
-11.4pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+5.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.0pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuen Mun SA EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Shatin SA EU Bookmakers 66%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
217 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 520 · 91%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.0
POST-MATCH Tuen Mun SA vs Shatin SA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuen Mun SA squeezed past Shatin SA 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Shatin SA at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

What was the final score of Tuen Mun SA vs Shatin SA?

Tuen Mun SA 3-2 Shatin SA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuen Mun SA vs Shatin SA?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shatin SA win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tuen Mun SA 29%, draw 21%, Shatin SA 50%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shatin SA) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shatin SA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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