De Graafschap 3-1 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.38
Over 2.5
45%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.12
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.03
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.12 — our 29% vs market 14.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.52
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
11%
4.77
X/2
9%
7.79
X/X
18%
5.8
2/1
8%
21.1
2/2
10%
4.98
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.4pp
31%
Draw
24%
+7.3pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
38%
+16.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
62%
-16.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.7pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
1.36/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.42
-8% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +72%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
24.9 Crosses 18.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Vitesse
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.01 xG 2.45
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
209 Passes 370
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2019 Vitesse Vitesse 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOK
12.05.2019 Vitesse Vitesse 6-1 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
23.12.2018 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
21.02.2016 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
20.09.2015 Vitesse Vitesse 3-0 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
04.03.2012 Vitesse Vitesse 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-1
AWAY Vitesse
2.72 xG 0.56
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
330 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap saw off Vitesse 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 55% of the ball to Vitesse's 45%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.72 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for De Graafschap and 2.83 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Vitesse?

De Graafschap 3-1 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 41%, draw 31%, Vitesse 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Under 2.5
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