Neftekhimik 2-1 FK Rodina Moskva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.4pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-6.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+6.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
0.93/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.25
-12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftekhimik
1W-0D-2L
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
27.08.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-4 HT 0-2 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
13.05.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-5 HT 1-1 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
23.10.2022 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neftekhimik
2-1
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Neftekhimik vs FK Rodina Moskva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftekhimik squeezed past FK Rodina Moskva 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Neftekhimik made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Neftekhimik had 37% of the ball to FK Rodina Moskva's 63%, shots finished 6-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, FK Rodina Moskva led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Neftekhimik and 3.00 for FK Rodina Moskva.

What was the final score of Neftekhimik vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Neftekhimik 2-1 FK Rodina Moskva in the Russia - FNL on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftekhimik vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Before kick-off our model rated an FK Rodina Moskva win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Neftekhimik 34%, draw 27%, FK Rodina Moskva 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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