St. Pauli II 1-3 Lübeck — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.03
Over Pick
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
36%
4-5
26%
6+
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli II The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Lübeck The Market 46%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -9%
1.40/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.22
+1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
237 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lübeck
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
19.03.2023 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 2-1 HT 0-1 Lübeck Lübeck ALMBÖL
18.09.2022 Lübeck Lübeck 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
16.10.2021 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 1-0 HT 1-0 Lübeck Lübeck ALMBÖL
13.08.2021 Lübeck Lübeck 3-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
14.02.2020 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 1-2 HT 0-2 Lübeck Lübeck ALMBÖL
06.12.2015 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 1-2 HT 1-1 Lübeck Lübeck ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH St. Pauli II vs Lübeck
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lübeck saw off St. Pauli II 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lübeck as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lübeck led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Pauli II and 1.50 for Lübeck.

What was the final score of St. Pauli II vs Lübeck?

St. Pauli II 1-3 Lübeck in the Germany - Regional League on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli II vs Lübeck?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lübeck win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli II 35%, draw 23%, Lübeck 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lübeck), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lübeck) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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ALMBÖL More Germany - Regional League
29 Oct 2024
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