Sporting CP 3-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 29 Oct 2024

Sporting CP
3-1 HT 0-0
Nacional
📅29/10/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - League Cup – 2025/2026

Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.18
Draw
23%
6.26
Away
19%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.61
Over 2.5
49%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
6.05
2-3 Goals
44%
2.08
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
9%
5.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.05 — our 23% vs market 12.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.3
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
31.5
X/1
20%
3.42
X/2
7%
31.5
X/X
8%
10.55
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
6%
23.6
2/X
7%
30.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
80%
-22.0pp
23%
Draw
13%
+9.5pp
19%
Away Win
7%
+12.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
35%
+16.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
65%
-16.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.7pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.52/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-47% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
493 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Sporting CP vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Nacional
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.92 xG 0.57
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
382 Passes 207
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
34 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.08.2024 Nacional Nacional 1-6 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
01.05.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
08.01.2021 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
19.04.2019 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
16.12.2018 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-2 HT 1-2 Nacional Nacional POR
18.03.2017 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR

Sporting CP 3-1 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-1
AWAY Nacional
2.48 xG 0.96
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
508 Passes 197
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
43 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP beat Nacional 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting CP had 68% of the ball to Nacional's 32%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 2.48 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Sporting CP and 0.50 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Sporting CP 3-1 Nacional in the Portugal - League Cup on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 58%, draw 23%, Nacional 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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