St. Pauli 3-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 29 Nov 2024

St. Pauli
3-1 HT 1-0
Holstein Kiel
📅29/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.25
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
22%
3.7
6+ Goals
12%
15.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 22% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.37
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.05
X/1
17%
4.36
X/2
12%
11.3
X/X
11%
5.48
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
11%
9.02
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
18.1
Value flag · 2/X at 18.1 — our 9% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 22%
-64% / -64% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.21/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.97
-100% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
393 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
23.0 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
352 Passes 382
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.02.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 0-3 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
17.09.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 5-1 HT 3-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
19.05.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
08.11.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
17.12.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-0 HT 3-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
25.07.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2

St. Pauli 3-1 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
3-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.33 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 Passes 356
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli got the better of Holstein Kiel 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St. Pauli as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 48% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.33 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for St. Pauli and 1.67 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?

St. Pauli 3-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 45%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5
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