Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 29 Nov 2024

📅29/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 27% vs market 19.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.52
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
22%
4.52
X/2
8%
8.1
X/X
9%
5.28
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
12%
5.68
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.29/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.87
-26% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
424 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
22.8 Crosses 21.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.32 xG 1.97
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
304 Passes 231
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.04.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
28.10.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 4-0 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
21.04.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
11.11.2018 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
08.04.2018 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-2 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
27.10.2017 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 HT 1-2 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1-0
AWAY Ingolstadt
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
390 Passes 182
81% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Crosses 7
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld edged past Ingolstadt 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arminia Bielefeld as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 62% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 38%, shots finished 22-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.67 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Ingolstadt?

Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 29/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 48%, draw 25%, Ingolstadt 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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