Farense 1-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Nov 2024

📅29/11/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.59
Over
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.49
2-3
38%
1.8
4-5
20%
4.9
6+
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.72
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.95
X/1
14%
5.24
X/2
13%
6.8
X/X
13%
4.3
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
5.39
2/X
9%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.5pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela The Market 33%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.50/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.99
-6% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
23.3 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Estrela
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
280 Passes 280
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 40
18 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 4
29.04.2024 Estrela Estrela 0-3 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
15.12.2023 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
03.02.2023 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 1-1 Estrela Estrela POR2
13.08.2022 Estrela Estrela 1-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2
28.01.2022 Farense Farense 3-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
21.08.2021 Estrela Estrela 3-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-0
AWAY Estrela
1.04 xG 0.47
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
198 Passes 335
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Farense vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense nicked a narrow win over Estrela 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Farense made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Farense had 41% of the ball to Estrela's 59%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.04 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Farense and 1.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Farense vs Estrela?

Farense 1-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Farense 39%, draw 28%, Estrela 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Farense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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