29/11/2025
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
1-2
Buxton vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Over 2.5
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
23%
Draw
24%
31%
Away Win
27%
40%
Under 2.5
36%
60%
Over 2.5
64%
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
40%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Buxton v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Buxton
EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY
Merthyr Town
EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% /
-7%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+58% /
+58%
1.71/1.30
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
3.52/1.56
+4%
/
-19%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+150%
/
-4%
54%
Ball Possession
46%
11
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
368 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
343 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.1
Yellow Cards
1.5
Buxton vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Buxton
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Merthyr Town
2.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
44%
Ball Possession
56%
8
Total Shots
7
3
Shots on Target
3
3
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
0
The Meetings
05.11.2022
Buxton
2-0
HT 1-0
Merthyr Town
FAK
2-0
HT 1-0
Merthyr Town
FAK
POST-MATCH
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Merthyr Town edged past Buxton 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Our pre-match lean was Buxton at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) came in.
What was the final score of Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
Buxton 1-2 Merthyr Town in the England - Conference on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Buxton 46%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Buxton) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Buxton)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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İCON
More England - Conference
29 Nov 2025