Chesham United 2-1 Dorking Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
43%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.95
Over
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.37
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
23%
3.28
6+
7%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.0pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.1pp
43%
Away Win
54%
-11.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorking Wanderers EU Bookmakers 58%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -3%
1.46/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.40
+27% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -31%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
237 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesham United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Dorking Wanderers
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2025 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers 2-0 HT 0-0 Chesham United Chesham United İCON
21.12.2024 Chesham United Chesham United 0-5 HT 0-2 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers İCON
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Dorking Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United nicked a narrow win over Dorking Wanderers 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dorking Wanderers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Dorking Wanderers led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Chesham United and 3.50 for Dorking Wanderers.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Dorking Wanderers?

Chesham United 2-1 Dorking Wanderers in the England - Conference on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Dorking Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dorking Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 25%, draw 32%, Dorking Wanderers 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dorking Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5
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