Ceuta vs Burgos Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ceuta v Burgos — Team-Based Signals
Ceuta 1-0 Burgos — Actual Match Statistics
Ceuta nicked a narrow win over Burgos 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ceuta as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Ceuta had 53% of the ball to Burgos's 47%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.10 to 0.59.
What was the final score of Ceuta vs Burgos?
Ceuta 1-0 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Burgos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 43%, draw 28%, Burgos 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.