Lealtad 0-1 UD Ourense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 29 Nov 2025

Lealtad
0-1 HT 0-1
UD Ourense
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division RFEF – 2025/2026

Lealtad vs UD Ourense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.5pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lealtad v UD Ourense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lealtad EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Ourense EU Bookmakers 39%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.67/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-40% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.6

Lealtad 0-1 UD Ourense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lealtad
0-1
AWAY UD Ourense
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lealtad vs UD Ourense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Ourense squeezed past Lealtad 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; UD Ourense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lealtad had 48% of the ball to UD Ourense's 52%, shots finished 7-12.

What was the final score of Lealtad vs UD Ourense?

Lealtad 0-1 UD Ourense in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lealtad vs UD Ourense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lealtad win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Lealtad 34%, draw 32%, UD Ourense 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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