HB Koge 1-2 Middelfart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 29% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.91
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
14%
4.97
X/2
9%
7.11
X/X
12%
4.96
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
11%
5.04
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
45%
+3.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HB Koge EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Middelfart EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.84/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.26
+26% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +49%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
18.9 Crosses 20.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HB Koge
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Middelfart
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.74 xG 1.85
42% Ball Possession 58%
18 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 3
256 Passes 396
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 23
5 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2025 Middelfart Middelfart 2-2 HT 1-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HB Koge
1-2
AWAY Middelfart
2.22 xG 1.71
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
399 Passes 288
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HB Koge vs Middelfart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middelfart edged past HB Koge 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was HB Koge at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, HB Koge had 56% of the ball to Middelfart's 44%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 2.22 to 1.71 — on chances, HB Koge could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of HB Koge vs Middelfart?

HB Koge 1-2 Middelfart in the Denmark 1st Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HB Koge vs Middelfart?

Before kick-off our model rated a HB Koge win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split HB Koge 49%, draw 25%, Middelfart 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (HB Koge) ✗ Under 2.5
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