Western United 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 29 Dec 2024

Western United
1-0 HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
📅29/12/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Western United vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.51
Over
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
23%
5.51
2-3
43%
2.0
4-5
20%
2.55
6+
14%
5.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.51 — our 23% vs market 13.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
21%
4.47
X/2
5%
9.67
X/X
8%
6.42
2/1
7%
20.05
2/2
12%
6.22
2/X
8%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Western United win — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
23%
Away Win
23%
-0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.6pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Western United v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 26%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.67/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.61
-20% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 79%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
27.5 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Western United vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.34 xG 1.26
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 Passes 425
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-2 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
15.12.2023 Western United Western United 2-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
18.03.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-0 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
30.12.2022 Western United Western United 1-1 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
26.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-3 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
11.12.2021 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Western United 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
1-0
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.40 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
357 Passes 428
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Western United vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United edged past Brisbane Roar 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Western United as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Western United had 46% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 54%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.40 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Western United and 1.17 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Western United vs Brisbane Roar?

Western United 1-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Western United 53%, draw 24%, Brisbane Roar 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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