Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 30 Jan 2024

Aston Villa
1-3 HT 0-2
Newcastle United
📅30/01/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.83
2-3 Goals
35%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.78
6+ Goals
16%
7.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.54
X/2
9%
8.08
X/X
11%
5.75
2/1
8%
20.95
2/2
8%
5.34
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · X/1 at 4.54 — our 25% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-2.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
-0.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
+0.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.4pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +21%
1.89/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.55
+21% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
18.8 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Aston Villa vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.15 xG 1.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
305 Passes 305
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 5-1 HT 2-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
15.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
29.10.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
13.02.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
21.08.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
12.03.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-3
AWAY Newcastle United
1.46 xG 2.63
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
498 Passes 284
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 29
23 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United beat Aston Villa 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Aston Villa had 61% of the ball to Newcastle United's 39%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.46 to 2.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aston Villa and 1.83 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Newcastle United?

Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 30/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 50%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 23%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
30 Jan 2024
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