Winterthur 1-3 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 30 Jan 2024

📅30/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.3
6+ Goals
14%
11.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.13
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
10%
12.8
X/1
18%
5.1
X/2
10%
6.21
X/X
9%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.7
2/2
16%
4.12
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 36%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.22/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.63
-2% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
14.5 Crosses 14.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Basel
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.92 xG 1.66
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
253 Passes 454
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2023 Basel Basel 5-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.04.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-4 HT 1-2 Basel Basel İSV
01.04.2023 Basel Basel 2-0 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
23.10.2022 Basel Basel 3-1 HT 2-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
16.07.2022 Winterthur Winterthur 1-1 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
17.02.2021 Winterthur Winterthur 6-2 HT 2-0 Basel Basel İSVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
1-3
AWAY Basel
0.34 xG 2.40
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 31
4 Shots on Target 11
1 Corners 9
178 Passes 438
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 34
6 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel got the better of Winterthur 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Winterthur at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Winterthur had 34% of the ball to Basel's 66%, shots finished 9-31, expected goals 0.34 to 2.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Winterthur and 2.83 for Basel.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Basel?

Winterthur 1-3 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 30/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Winterthur win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 43%, draw 26%, Basel 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Winterthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Winterthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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