Norrköping 1-5 Malmö FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 30 Mar 2024

Norrköping
1-5 HT 0-3
Malmö FF
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Norrköping vs Malmö FF Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
49%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.43
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
9%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.38
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.05
1/X
9%
16.3
X/1
9%
11.4
X/2
18%
3.88
X/X
11%
6.14
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.91
2/X
6%
15.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.05 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.8pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
49%
Away Win
60%
-11.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Norrköping v Malmö FF — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norrköping EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 64%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -1%
1.33/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.81
+53% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.4
13.6 Crosses 21.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Norrköping vs Malmö FF Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norrköping
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Malmö FF
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.80 xG 1.96
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
287 Passes 428
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 5-2 HT 1-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇK
29.10.2023 Norrköping Norrköping 0-1 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
24.04.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 3-0 HT 1-0 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ
11.09.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 2-1 HT 0-1 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ
16.07.2022 Norrköping Norrköping 0-2 HT 0-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
11.09.2021 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-1 HT 0-0 Norrköping Norrköping İSÇ

Norrköping 1-5 Malmö FF — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norrköping
1-5
AWAY Malmö FF
1.01 xG 3.46
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 9
363 Passes 395
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 44
27 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Norrköping vs Malmö FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF ran out comfortable winners over Norrköping 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Malmö FF as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Norrköping had 49% of the ball to Malmö FF's 51%, shots finished 14-22, expected goals 1.01 to 3.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Norrköping and 2.33 for Malmö FF.

What was the final score of Norrköping vs Malmö FF?

Norrköping 1-5 Malmö FF in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norrköping vs Malmö FF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Norrköping 26%, draw 25%, Malmö FF 49%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malmö FF), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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