Eibar 5-1 Eldense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.64
Over 2.5
37%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.42
6+ Goals
7%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 39% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.21
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.0
X/1
19%
3.71
X/2
9%
9.86
X/X
14%
4.38
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
10%
8.57
2/X
7%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
57%
+6.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
43%
-6.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Eldense EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.46/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.36
-9% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.3 Crosses 18.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Eldense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.63 xG 0.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
385 Passes 219
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
28.08.2023 Eldense Eldense 2-1 HT 2-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
5-1
AWAY Eldense
3.21 xG 0.59
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
528 Passes 252
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Eldense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar swept aside Eldense 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Eibar as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eibar had 64% of the ball to Eldense's 36%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 3.21 to 0.59.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Eldense?

Eibar 5-1 Eldense in the Spain - 2nd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Eldense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Eibar 50%, draw 26%, Eldense 24%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eibar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eibar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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