Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Ludogorets Razgrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.91
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
47%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
14%
+12.8pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.8pp
47%
Away Win
66%
-18.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad EU Bookmakers 70%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.32/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.82
-60% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -6%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
273 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 4-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BULK
27.09.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
15.05.2023 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-2
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ludogorets Razgrad edged past Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ludogorets Razgrad as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 35% of the ball to Ludogorets Razgrad's 65%, shots finished 6-17.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ludogorets Razgrad led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 2.00 for Ludogorets Razgrad.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Ludogorets Razgrad in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ludogorets Razgrad win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 27%, draw 26%, Ludogorets Razgrad 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ludogorets Razgrad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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