Aalborg 1-0 SonderjyskE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.74
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.1
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
30.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
14%
5.02
X/2
13%
6.32
X/X
10%
4.95
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
17%
4.29
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY SonderjyskE EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.37/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.38
+39% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
14.0 Crosses 16.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY SonderjyskE
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.47 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
338 Passes 330
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Aalborg Aalborg 2-2 HT 1-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN1
15.09.2023 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 1-1 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
22.11.2021 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 1-3 HT 1-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
03.10.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 4-0 HT 2-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
24.05.2021 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 0-4 HT 0-2 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
08.03.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 1-0 HT 0-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalborg
1-0
AWAY SonderjyskE
0.82 xG 1.85
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 10
236 Passes 428
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs SonderjyskE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalborg nicked a narrow win over SonderjyskE 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Aalborg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aalborg had 39% of the ball to SonderjyskE's 61%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.82 to 1.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured SonderjyskE.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aalborg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Aalborg and 0.67 for SonderjyskE.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs SonderjyskE?

Aalborg 1-0 SonderjyskE in the Denmark 1st Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs SonderjyskE?

Before kick-off our model rated an SonderjyskE win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 37%, draw 25%, SonderjyskE 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SonderjyskE), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SonderjyskE) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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