Libertad 1-0 Tecnico Universitario — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-2.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Tecnico Universitario EU Bookmakers 42%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
0.95/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.09
-83% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.2 Crosses 18.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Tecnico Universitario
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.10 xG 1.54
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
222 Passes 206
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
27.11.2023 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
10.06.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-0
AWAY Tecnico Universitario
0.84 xG 0.24
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
260 Passes 262
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Tecnico Universitario
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad nicked a narrow win over Tecnico Universitario 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Libertad found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 50% of the ball to Tecnico Universitario's 50%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.84 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 0.50 for Tecnico Universitario.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Tecnico Universitario?

Libertad 1-0 Tecnico Universitario in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Tecnico Universitario?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Libertad 37%, draw 27%, Tecnico Universitario 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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