Metz 2-5 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 30 Mar 2024

Metz
2-5 HT 0-3
Monaco
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
43%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 29% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.52
1/2
8%
21.2
1/X
9%
15.65
X/1
11%
10.35
X/2
17%
3.98
X/X
11%
5.91
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.03
2/X
8%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
20%
+8.6pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.3pp
43%
Away Win
57%
-13.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.6pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.93/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.98
+6% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
14.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
19.9 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Monaco
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.73 xG 1.56
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
273 Passes 474
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Monaco Monaco 2-1 HT 1-1 Metz Metz FR1
03.04.2022 Metz Metz 1-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
05.12.2021 Monaco Monaco 4-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
06.04.2021 Monaco Monaco 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FRK
03.04.2021 Monaco Monaco 4-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
30.08.2020 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
2-5
AWAY Monaco
2.17 xG 2.42
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
325 Passes 658
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 19
POST-MATCH Metz vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco swept aside Metz 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Metz had 36% of the ball to Monaco's 64%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 2.17 to 2.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Metz and 2.17 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Metz vs Monaco?

Metz 2-5 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Metz 29%, draw 28%, Monaco 43%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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