Avranches 1-2 Rouen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
34%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.66
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 37% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.33
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
9%
14.8
X/1
12%
6.57
X/2
10%
4.38
X/X
17%
4.03
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.04
2/X
5%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+6.8pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
34%
Away Win
44%
-9.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avranches EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Rouen EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.15/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.26
-1% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avranches
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Rouen
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 11
5 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2023 Rouen Rouen 0-0 HT 0-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avranches
1-2
AWAY Rouen
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Avranches vs Rouen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rouen squeezed past Avranches 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Rouen found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avranches had 38% of the ball to Rouen's 62%, shots finished 5-12.

What was the final score of Avranches vs Rouen?

Avranches 1-2 Rouen in the France - National League 1 on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avranches vs Rouen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avranches win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Avranches 35%, draw 31%, Rouen 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Avranches) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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