Changwon City 1-2 Paju Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K3 League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changwon City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Paju Citizen EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -8%
1.15/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.08
-2% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changwon City
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Paju Citizen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
10 Corners 7
19.08.2023 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 1-2 HT 0-1 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
21.04.2023 Changwon City Changwon City 0-0 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
18.09.2022 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 1-2 HT 0-2 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
02.07.2022 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 2-0 HT 2-0 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
14.05.2022 Changwon City Changwon City 0-0 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
19.03.2022 Changwon City Changwon City 0-1 HT 0-1 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
POST-MATCH Changwon City vs Paju Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paju Citizen nicked a narrow win over Changwon City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Paju Citizen made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Changwon City and 0.83 for Paju Citizen.

What was the final score of Changwon City vs Paju Citizen?

Changwon City 1-2 Paju Citizen in the South Kore - K3 League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changwon City vs Paju Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paju Citizen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Changwon City 35%, draw 28%, Paju Citizen 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paju Citizen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paju Citizen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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