NK Varazdin 2-4 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 30 Mar 2024

NK Varazdin
2-4 HT 1-2
HNK Gorica
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒16:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2025/2026

NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.72
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.3
6+ Goals
7%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NK Varazdin v HNK Gorica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.17/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.11
-24% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 72%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.3 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.35 xG 1.36
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
366 Passes 248
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.07.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
20.05.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 5-2 HT 2-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
17.03.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
18.01.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR

NK Varazdin 2-4 HNK Gorica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-4
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.20 xG 1.44
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
377 Passes 211
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica beat NK Varazdin 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 60% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 40%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.20 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.33 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

NK Varazdin 2-4 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 41%, draw 27%, HNK Gorica 32%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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