North Carolina 2-1 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.61
No
55%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.12
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.4pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 30%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.65/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.78
-42% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
23.9 Crosses 16.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.08
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
400 Passes 289
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2019 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
28.04.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 4-1 HT 2-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
2-1
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.53 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
309 Passes 350
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina nicked a narrow win over Hartford Athletic 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had North Carolina as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, North Carolina had 48% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 52%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.53 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, North Carolina had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for North Carolina and 1.00 for Hartford Athletic.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Hartford Athletic?

North Carolina 2-1 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 47%, draw 24%, Hartford Athletic 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Carolina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (North Carolina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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