Yeni Zelanda 4-1 Şili — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Mar 2026

📅30/03/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
19%
3.45
Away
56%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
17%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 36% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
29%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.4pp
19%
Draw
26%
-6.6pp
56%
Away Win
55%
+1.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.2pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yeni Zelanda EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Şili EU Bookmakers 58%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -37%
1.16/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.76
-33% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -48%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
224 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 79%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
15.3 Crosses 11.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yeni Zelanda
4-1
AWAY Şili
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
413 Passes 204
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
POST-MATCH Yeni Zelanda vs Şili
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yeni Zelanda ran out comfortable winners over Şili 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Şili carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Yeni Zelanda had 63% of the ball to Şili's 37%, shots finished 12-5.

What was the final score of Yeni Zelanda vs Şili?

Yeni Zelanda 4-1 Şili in the Friendlies on 30/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yeni Zelanda vs Şili?

Before kick-off our model rated an Şili win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Yeni Zelanda 25%, draw 19%, Şili 56%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Şili) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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