Valur 5-1 Stjarnan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 30 May 2024

📅30/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.61
Over 2.5
65%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.7pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.7pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.5pp
35%
Under 2.5
35%
+0.2pp
65%
Over 2.5
65%
-0.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.5pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valur EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -16%
1.92/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.44
+2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
29.1 Crosses 17.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valur
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Stjarnan
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
334 Passes 371
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Stjarnan Stjarnan 1-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
17.09.2023 Valur Valur 2-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
17.07.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 2-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
29.04.2023 Valur Valur 3-2 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
16.10.2022 Valur Valur 3-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
14.08.2022 Valur Valur 6-1 HT 3-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valur
5-1
AWAY Stjarnan
2.31 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 Passes 333
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 42
17 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valur vs Stjarnan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valur ran out comfortable winners over Stjarnan 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valur as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Valur had 47% of the ball to Stjarnan's 53%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.31 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Valur and 1.00 for Stjarnan.

What was the final score of Valur vs Stjarnan?

Valur 5-1 Stjarnan in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 30/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valur vs Stjarnan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Valur 50%, draw 19%, Stjarnan 31%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İZL More Iceland - Urvalsdeild
30 May 2024
23:15 Breidablik vs Vikingur R. Analysis →