İspanya 4-1 Gürcistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.22
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.33
No
58%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 26% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.38
1/2
4%
130.0
1/X
5%
30.0
X/1
29%
3.23
X/2
5%
27.5
X/X
8%
8.33
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
4%
23.15
2/X
5%
30.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
78%
-9.1pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.6pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.2pp
58%
BTTS No
61%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Gürcistan EU Bookmakers 9%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
2.26/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/3.01
-63% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -42%
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
528 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 211 · 69%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
28.0 Crosses 20.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Gürcistan
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.40 xG 0.40
74% Ball Possession 26%
20 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
734 Passes 188
92% Pass Accuracy 73%
42 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.11.2023 İspanya İspanya 3-1 HT 1-1 Gürcistan Gürcistan AVŞE
08.09.2023 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-7 HT 0-4 İspanya İspanya AVŞE
05.09.2021 İspanya İspanya 4-0 HT 3-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan DKE
28.03.2021 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-2 HT 1-0 İspanya İspanya DKE
07.06.2016 İspanya İspanya 0-1 HT 0-1 Gürcistan Gürcistan HAZ
15.10.2013 İspanya İspanya 2-0 HT 1-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya
4-1
AWAY Gürcistan
3.36 xG 0.25
75% Ball Possession 25%
35 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Target 0
13 Corners 3
748 Passes 208
94% Pass Accuracy 79%
48 Box Touches 4
33 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İspanya vs Gürcistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya cruised past Gürcistan 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had İspanya as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İspanya had 75% of the ball to Gürcistan's 25%, shots finished 35-4, expected goals 3.36 to 0.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, İspanya had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for İspanya and 0.67 for Gürcistan.

What was the final score of İspanya vs Gürcistan?

İspanya 4-1 Gürcistan in the Euro on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya vs Gürcistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a İspanya win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split İspanya 68%, draw 19%, Gürcistan 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İspanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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