Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.17
6+ Goals
7%
20.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.0pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 28%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.09
+38% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 0
30.10.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
14.08.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR1
31.05.2020 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 4-2 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
0-3
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk cruised past Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had 58% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 42%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk and 0.67 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 45%, draw 27%, Naftan Novopolotsk 28%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BLR More Belarus - Premier League
30 Jun 2024
16:00 Slutsk vs FC Minsk Analysis →
18:00 Isloch Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev Analysis →