Ceara 4-2 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 30 Jun 2024

Ceara
4-2 HT 3-1
Ituano
📅30/06/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Ceara vs Ituano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.19
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
67%
-15.0pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.1pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+7.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Ituano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.34/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.50
-16% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
340 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
22.7 Crosses 15.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Ceara vs Ituano Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Ituano
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.30 xG 0.54
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
406 Passes 204
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 8
27 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
29.07.2023 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
15.04.2023 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
16.03.2023 Ituano Ituano 1-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BRK

Ceara 4-2 Ituano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
4-2
AWAY Ituano
1.56 xG 0.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
21 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
236 Passes 356
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara got the better of Ituano 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ceara had 43% of the ball to Ituano's 57%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 1.56 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ituano led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ceara and 1.33 for Ituano.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Ituano?

Ceara 4-2 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ceara 52%, draw 28%, Ituano 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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