Genk 1-0 Westerlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.63
Over 2.5
56%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.46
2-3 Goals
40%
2.12
4-5 Goals
25%
2.51
6+ Goals
15%
5.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.02
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.8
X/1
14%
4.42
X/2
10%
10.35
X/X
9%
6.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.25
2/2
9%
6.47
2/X
5%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.25 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.1pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
34%
+10.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
66%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.9pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Westerlo EU Bookmakers 25%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
2.16/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/2.15
+4% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
434 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
20.9 Crosses 14.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Westerlo
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.24 xG 1.43
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
377 Passes 352
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Westerlo Westerlo 1-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
01.10.2023 Genk Genk 3-3 HT 2-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
17.01.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 2-3 HT 0-2 Genk Genk BEL
09.11.2022 Westerlo Westerlo 0-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEK
18.10.2022 Genk Genk 6-1 HT 5-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
21.07.2019 Westerlo Westerlo 2-1 HT 1-1 Genk Genk HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-0
AWAY Westerlo
1.68 xG 0.53
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 1
556 Passes 287
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Genk vs Westerlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past Westerlo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 63% of the ball to Westerlo's 37%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.68 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Genk and 1.50 for Westerlo.

What was the final score of Genk vs Westerlo?

Genk 1-0 Westerlo in the Belgium - Pro League on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Westerlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Genk 49%, draw 24%, Westerlo 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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