Westerlo 1-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.94
6+ Goals
12%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.29
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
11%
7.81
X/2
13%
4.55
X/X
11%
5.51
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.5
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-1.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.4pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Westerlo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 51%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.61/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.35
+56% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
284 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 72%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
15.7 Crosses 17.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Westerlo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Genk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.44 xG 2.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
409 Passes 365
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Genk Genk 3-3 HT 2-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
17.01.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 2-3 HT 0-2 Genk Genk BEL
09.11.2022 Westerlo Westerlo 0-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEK
18.10.2022 Genk Genk 6-1 HT 5-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
21.07.2019 Westerlo Westerlo 2-1 HT 1-1 Genk Genk HAZ
12.03.2017 Westerlo Westerlo 0-4 HT 0-2 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Westerlo
1-1
AWAY Genk
1.37 xG 1.09
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
183 Passes 412
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Westerlo vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Westerlo and Genk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Genk at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Westerlo had 35% of the ball to Genk's 65%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.37 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Westerlo and 3.00 for Genk.

What was the final score of Westerlo vs Genk?

Westerlo 1-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Westerlo vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Westerlo 28%, draw 25%, Genk 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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