RKC Waalwijk 0-3 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 30 Aug 2024

RKC Waalwijk
0-3 HT 0-2
AZ Alkmaar
📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

RKC Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 29% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
10.4
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
9%
17.95
X/1
9%
13.7
X/2
20%
3.7
X/X
9%
6.42
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.75
2/X
6%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
15%
+11.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-14.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.04/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.19
+0% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -2%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
244 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 82%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
17.4 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5

RKC Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2W-0D-4L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.41 xG 2.02
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
279 Passes 514
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.04.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-2 HT 0-2 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
20.08.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-3 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
23.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-0 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
06.11.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
15.05.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-3 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
09.02.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-4 HT 0-3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK

RKC Waalwijk 0-3 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
0-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.11 xG 2.88
39% Ball Possession 61%
3 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
249 Passes 427
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
6 Box Touches 46
11 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar ran out comfortable winners over RKC Waalwijk 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 39% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 61%, shots finished 3-22, expected goals 0.11 to 2.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.50 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?

RKC Waalwijk 0-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 27%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 50%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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