AZ Alkmaar 3-2 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.55
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.6
X/1
17%
3.57
X/2
7%
17.65
X/X
5%
7.71
2/1
7%
21.4
2/2
9%
13.25
2/X
6%
20.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.0pp
17%
Draw
18%
-1.1pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.0pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
2.29/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/2.28
+0% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
415 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
20.7 Crosses 13.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.84 xG 1.42
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
507 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.08.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-3 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
23.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-0 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
06.11.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
15.05.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-3 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
09.02.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-4 HT 0-3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
14.08.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3-2
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.09 xG 0.63
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
588 Passes 189
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar squeezed past RKC Waalwijk 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 71% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 29%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 2.09 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AZ Alkmaar's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.33 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs RKC Waalwijk?

AZ Alkmaar 3-2 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 62%, draw 17%, RKC Waalwijk 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
13 Apr 2024
17:30 PSV Eindhoven vs Vitesse Analysis →
22:00 Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →